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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 07 April 16
BIMCO AND GIIGNL PUBLISH A GROUNDBREAKING VOYAGE CHARTER PARTY FOR LNG TRADE
BIMCO and the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers (GIIGNL) have today jointly issued the first definitive voyage charter party & ...
Wednesday, 06 April 16
HOW LONG SHIPPING CRISIS WILL BE; WHEN SHOULD OWNERS EXPECT THE BULK CARRIERS TO BECOME PROFITABLE? - INTERMODAL
It is the consensus that dry bulk shipping has been in a crisis for quite some time now. Bulk carrier values are at historical low levels, therefor ...
Tuesday, 05 April 16
DRY BULK REVISITS 1980S LOWS AND FACES UNCERTAIN LONGER TERM OUTLOOK - MSI | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
With the market near bottom, attention is turning to the length of the downturn, the effect on asset values and the impact of broader demand side c ...
Monday, 04 April 16
THE LOADING, AND SUBSEQUENT DISCHARGE, OF UNSAFE NICKEL ORE - ALL TIME TO 'COUNT' - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent, published, London arbitration award the English tribunal has held that all time lost as a result of loading, ...
Monday, 04 April 16
INDONESIA CS57 COAL INDEX SLIDES SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin fell 0.07 percent week over week to averaging $38.88 per ton on this past Friday, ac ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
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