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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 01 June 16
ZERO SUPPLY TO FUEL GROWTH IN THE DRY BULK MARKET SAYS BIMCO PRESIDENT
The dry bulk market could become profitable again in 2019 – but only if a series of extremely tough and sustained measures are taken by shipo ...
Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. &n ...
Tuesday, 31 May 16
CS50 INDONESIA COAL INDEX UP 0.28% COMPARED WITH A WEEK AGO
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up 0.28 percent week over week to averaging $39.01 per ton this past week, shows ...
Monday, 30 May 16
BORYEONG POWER PLANT TO IMPORT HALF A MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 500,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal T ...
Monday, 30 May 16
BCI ENDING AT 830 POINTS, DOWN 4.6 PER CENT W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this week. The freight market was weak this past ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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