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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 27 May 16
PET-COKE IMPORTS TO FACE PRESSURE IN INDIA
COALspot.com: An Indian environmental activist moved the National Green Tribunal seeking ban on the use of all forms of petroleum coke, also called ...
Friday, 27 May 16
US COAL PRODUCTION ROSE 2.9% WOW, ACCORDING TO EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.7 million short tons (mm ...
Thursday, 26 May 16
GIANT ORE CARRIERS SET TO PLAY A BIGGER ROLE IN THE GLOBAL SHIPPING FLEET: CHINA EMBRACES VALEMAXES - RICHARD SCOTT
Another phase of the giant ships era is approaching. Chinese shipowners placed orders recently for 30 huge ‘valemax’ ore carriers. Thes ...
Wednesday, 25 May 16
MEDIATION AS A WAY TO RESOLVE DISPUTES IN THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY - LANA JACOBS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The shipping market is currently experiencing a serious recession with the Baltic Dry Index and Baltic Capesize Index bot ...
Wednesday, 25 May 16
DRY BULK SNP MARKET DISPLAYS SIGNS OF STRENGTH - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Only a couple of weeks away from the world’s most prominent maritime event, the market for tankers displays an evident lack of confidence in ...
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Showing 2416 to 2420 news of total 6871 |
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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