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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 24 May 16
WEEKLY CS COAL INDICES NEGATIVE FOR ALL TYPES OF COAL EXCEPT 3800 GAR COAL
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was down 0.10 percent week over week to averaging $38.90 per ton this past week, sho ...
Monday, 23 May 16
A PERFECT STORM FOR INDONESIAN STEAM COAL EXPORTS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
Indonesia is the world’s leading steam coal exporter, accounting for over 40% of global seaborne steam coal exports since 2010. However in 20 ...
Monday, 23 May 16
THE PANAMAX INDEX WAS UP 17 POINTS W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this week.
The freight market was firm and all ...
Friday, 20 May 16
SHIPBUILDING CONTRACTS: CAN I CANCEL? SHOULD I CANCEL? - THE SHIPOWNER CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
There are many circumstances in which a buyer of a new-build vessel might want to terminate or cancel their contract with ...
Friday, 20 May 16
U.S COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE WEEK ENDED 14 MAY TOTALED 11.4 MMST; UP 3.8% W/W
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.4 million short tons (mm ...
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Showing 2421 to 2425 news of total 6871 |
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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