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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 May 16
CHINA THERMAL-POWER OVERSUPPLY TO WORSEN - FITCH
COALspot.com: The overcapacity in thermal-power generation in China is likely to worsen in 2016 to 2017, Fitch Ratings says in a new report.
F ...
Tuesday, 17 May 16
ON YOUR MARKS: TRACKING CHINESE TRADE - CLARKSONS
One of the major drivers behind the challenges currently facing many of the shipping markets has been slower demand growth. World seaborne trade gr ...
Monday, 16 May 16
INDONESIAN WEEKLY COAL INDICES AT POSITIVE LEVELS - CS (I) COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.31 percent week over week to averaging $38.94 per ton this past week, shows CS ...
Monday, 16 May 16
OPEC SEES RIVAL OIL PRODUCTION DECLINING
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $37.86/b in April, a gain of $3.21 or 9.3%. This was 40% higher than the lows reache ...
Monday, 16 May 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS WEAK AND ALL SEGMENTS EXCEPT PANAMAX WERE DOWN
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this week.
The freight market was weak and a ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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