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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 07 June 16
CS COAL INDEX ROSE FOR SECOND STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up 0.38 percent week over week to averaging $39.16 per ton this past week, shows ...
Monday, 06 June 16
BDI GAINED ON A STRONGER DEMAND FOR CAPESIZE SHIPS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week on a stronger demand for Capesize ves ...
Friday, 03 June 16
DRY BULK VESSEL DELIVERIES COULD BE LESS THAN 50 MILLION DWT IN 2016, AS OWNERS DELAY OR CANCEL NEWBUILDING ORDERS
The dry bulk market has been caught between a rock and a hard place over the course of the past couple of years, as on one hand demand has plunged, ...
Friday, 03 June 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SLIDES 1.3% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.5 million short tons (mm ...
Wednesday, 01 June 16
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS IN APRIL 2016 DECLINED 15% Y/Y; COAL INDIA INCREASED COAL PRICES BY 6.2%
Coal India has approved raising weighted average coal prices by 6.2 per cent over the current price for both regulated and non-regulated sectors.
...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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