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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 10 June 16
INDONESIAN 6322 GAR COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO $51.81 A TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Benchmark Price increased in June 2016.
The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia, the regulator ...
Friday, 10 June 16
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED AN ESTIMATED 12 MMST IN THE WEEK ENDED JUNE 4, UP 4% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 12 million short tons (mmst ...
Wednesday, 08 June 16
BPI ACHIEVES FINANCIAL CLOSE FOR ITS 2000 MW POWER PROJECT IN CENTRAL JAVA
COALspot.com: PT Bhimasena Power Indonesia (BPI) on June 6th, 2016 Achieves financial close for its 2x1,000 MW power project in Batang Regency, Cen ...
Wednesday, 08 June 16
U.S COAL IMPORTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE 12 MMST IN 2016 AND 11 MMST IN 2017 - EIA
Coal Supply
U.S. coal production in May was 50 million short tons (MMst), a 4 MMst (10%) increase from the previous month but 19 MMst (28%) lower ...
Wednesday, 08 June 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET KEPT MOVING SIDEWAYS LAST WEEK; SECOND HAND PURCHASES MOVING NORTH - INTERMODAL
Once again its Posidonia time and the biannual exhibition takes place during a very warm June here in Athens, as if the performance of the dry bulk ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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