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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 20 June 16
THE BDI HAS FELL 23 POINTS WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities declined this past week. The BDI was fell 3.77 percent fr ...
Friday, 17 June 16
CHINA'S NEW POLICY TO REDUCE WASTE IN RENEWABLE ENERGY - FITCH
Chinese renewable energy producers are likely to benefit from a new policy that guarantees a minimum amount of solar and wind power is purchased in ...
Friday, 17 June 16
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR BITUMINOUS COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 780,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for its B ...
Friday, 17 June 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 7.7% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s one of the largest coal producer has produced approximately totalled an estimated 12.9 million short t ...
Wednesday, 15 June 16
THE DRY BULK PRICES CORRECTED UPWARDS ROUGHLY 15% - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
Once more, the international shipping community turned its attention to Greece and more specifically to Attica that hosted Posidonia, the biggest m ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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