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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 14 June 16
CS COAL INDICES ROSE UP FOR A THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK; 4200 GAR COAL UP 0.73%
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up 0.54 percent week over week to averaging $39.37 per ton this past week, shows ...
Monday, 13 June 16
DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES COULD PROVIDE FUTURE BOOST FOR SHIP OWNERS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
When it comes to the dry bulk market, shipowners these days are looking for news in any shape or form they can find them. However, as the discussio ...
Monday, 13 June 16
ONSHORE SHALE: WORTH KEEPING IN THE SHIPPING SPOTLIGHT CLARKSONS
Generally, shipping industry watchers spend much of their time monitoring events out to sea: how fleets are evolving, trade volumes growing and fre ...
Monday, 13 June 16
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 5.03% MORE COAL IN MAY; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE DECLINED 2.08% FROM APRIL
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1.162bill ...
Monday, 13 June 16
BALTIC INDEX FLAT, INDEX FOR CAPE RISE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities flat this past week. The freight market was almost same l ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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