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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 05 August 16
CAPESIZE : RATES ARE REMAINING AT DEPRESSING LEVELS DUE TO LACK OF FRESH CARGOES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Last week has been one of the slowest for some time with rates under pressure in most areas.
In its latest weekly report, shipbroke ...
Thursday, 04 August 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES ARE STARTING TO ZOOM HIGHER; HBA ROSE 10.13% TO US$ 58.37 PER TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since August 2015.
The Director General of Mineral and Coa ...
Thursday, 04 August 16
BREXIT: IMPLICATIONS FOR GLOBAL SHIPPING AND SEA TRADE - EVERSHEDS
The buzzword for the post-Brexit landscape both in Europe and further afield is ‘uncertainty’. No-one really knows the long term effect ...
Wednesday, 03 August 16
RECAAP INFORMATION SHARING CENTRE ISSUES SPECIAL REPORT ON THE ABDUCTING OF CREW FROM SHIPS IN WATERS OFF EASTERN SABAH AND SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In the light of three incidents where the crew of tug boats were abducted in the waters off Eastern Sabah and Southern Ph ...
Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIP TRADING AND ORDERING CLOSE TO A STALEMATE AS SUMMER LULL KICKS IN
With newbuilding activity already at a near standstill since the start of the year, most of 2016’s trading activity in shipping was evident i ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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