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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 August 16
THE INDONESIAN DRAFT NEW MINING LAW - AMENDMENTS TO THE 2009 MINING LAW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COALspot.com: A draft mining law published by Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources provides use ...
Tuesday, 09 August 16
CS50 COAL INDEX HITS NEW FIFTY-WEEKS HIGH
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 1.78% week over week to averaging $41.85 per ton this past week, shows CS (i) C ...
Tuesday, 09 August 16
HARD COAL PRODUCTION AND WORLD TRADE ON THE DECLINE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN YEARS - VDKI
Hard coal production and world trade on the decline for the first time in years – not a harbinger of a global energy turnaround
Worldwid ...
Tuesday, 09 August 16
BREXIT, BRITANNIA AND THE WAVES - TREVOR CROWE, CLARKSON RESEARCH
This week, the Bank of England put into place its action plan following the UK referendum on 23rd June, which indicated the British population&rsqu ...
Monday, 08 August 16
INDONESIA'S DRAFT MINING LAW HINTS AT FUTURE REGULATORY FRAMEWORK
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COALspot.com: A draft mining law published by Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources provides use ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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