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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 15 August 16
THE SPOT FREIGHT MARKET STRENGTHEN OVER THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose as Cape and Panamax segments ending in a positive no ...
Friday, 12 August 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ENDING AUGUST 6 FELL SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.9 million short ton ...
Thursday, 11 August 16
CAPESIZE THE PACIFIC SIDE IS LOOKING MORE POSITIVE, DRIVEN BY AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Rates continue to be under pressure with index ending up with 639 points and average TC value at USD6,680, said Fearnleys. Fearnleys A/S ...
Thursday, 11 August 16
EIA ESTIMATES THE DELIVERED COAL PRICE TO U.S. ELECTRIC UTILITIES IN 2017 AVERAGED $2.24/MMBTU; $0.05/MMBTU HIGHER THAN 2016 ESTIMATES
Coal Supply
U.S. coal production in July was 65 million short tons (MMst), an 8 MMst (14%) increase from the previous month but 11 MMst (15%) low ...
Wednesday, 10 August 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET KEPT SOFTENING LAST WEEK; WE CAN SEE MUCH HEALTHIER NUMBERS STARTING SEPTEMBER
The Dry Bulk market kept softening last week as we have now started going through the traditionally quieter days of the summer season peak period, ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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