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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 August 16
THE TURKISH GOVERNMENT HAS IMPOSED A $15 A TON DUTY ON POWER PLANT COAL IMPORTS - MEDIA
COALspot.com: The Turkish government has imposed a US$15 per ton duty on thermal coal imports for use in its power sector.
According to media ...
Monday, 08 August 16
THE BALTIC EXCHANGE, TRACKING RATES FOR SHIPS CARRYING DRY BULK COMMODITIES SLIDE SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities slide slightly as Panamax and Supramax segments ending in ...
Monday, 08 August 16
ARE EXPENSES INCURRED DURING NEGOTIATION OF A PIRATE RANSOM RECOVERABLE IN GENERAL AVERAGE? - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Facts
The laden chemical tanker LONGCHAMP was transiting the Gulf of Aden on passage to Vietnam. The ship was subject t ...
Saturday, 06 August 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING CHARTER RATES TO RISE ON UNEXPECTED DEMAND GROWTH - DREWRY
Increasing trade and contracting supply will support a recovery in charter rates on major dry bulk shipping routes, with the prospect of China impo ...
Friday, 05 August 16
WEEKLY U.S. COAL OUTPUT TOTALED AN ESTIMATED 16.1 MMST IN THE WEEK ENDED JULY 30 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short tons ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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