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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 02 August 16
INDONESIAN CS COAL INDICES STAY POSITIVE
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 0.71% week over week to averaging $41.12 per ton this past week, shows CS (i) C ...
Monday, 01 August 16
4200 GAR INDONESIAN COAL PRICE MAY TOUCH $ 32/33 A TON LEVELS SOON
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal prices are likely surge further in 2016 as the recent price movement in Indonesian coal markets suggests that the mar ...
Monday, 01 August 16
BALTIC INDEX ENDED NEGATIVE NOTE THIS PAST WEEK ON WEAKER RATES ACROSS ALL LARGE VESSEL SEGMENTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities slide slightly as Cape, Panamax and Supramax segments end ...
Friday, 29 July 16
U.S. COAL OUTPUT SLIPS SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 15 million short tons ( ...
Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow a ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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