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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 28 July 16
LAST WEEK ENDING UP WITH BUSIER TONES FOR SUPRAMAXES NOW COOLING DOWN - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Last week ending up with busier tones for Supramaxes now cooling down as with index being down to 684. Average daily earnings for Supram ...
Wednesday, 27 July 16
RATES FOR THE SMALLER SIZES OVER-PERFORMED THE MARKET LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
The decline the BDI noted last week was somewhat expected given the fact that the market has been overall firming for almost a month no ...
Wednesday, 27 July 16
GLOBAL OIL SUPPLY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER THAN GLOBAL CONSUMPTION IN 2016 - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Global oil supply is expected to remain higher than global consumption in 2016, keeping oil prices at relatively low levels this summer compared wi ...
Tuesday, 26 July 16
NORTH P&I CLUB EXPLAINS HOW TO AVOID CLAIMS FOR SELF-COOKING SOYA BEANS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
North P&I Club has advised its members to be extra vigilant during loading and transport of soya beans to ensure they ...
Monday, 25 July 16
STRONG BUYER DEMAND PUSHING UP INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL INDICES
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 0.73 percent week over week to averaging $40.83 per ton this past week, shows C ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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