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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 August 16
DRY BULK VESSELS FACE CONTINUED DISTRESS - CLEAR ASSET
Dry bulk vessels have faced extreme distress in recent years. With a combination of factors including newer vessels being ordered with up to 5-year ...
Tuesday, 23 August 16
4200 GAR COAL INDEX CLIMB 15.96% YEAR TO DATE - CS COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: Average 4200 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 1.65 % week over week to averaging $31.46 per ton this past week, shows CS (i) ...
Tuesday, 23 August 16
KOMIPO TO IMPORT 250K OF 5,700 KCAL/KG NAR COAL FOR Q4' 16
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for total 250,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for ...
Monday, 22 August 16
INDONESIA'S CS 5000 GAR THERMAL COAL INDEX, ROSE TO A 57-WEEKS HIGH TO TOP $43.47 A TON
COALspot.com: Indonesia’s CS 5000 GAR thermal coal index, rose to a 57-weeks high to top $US43. 47 a ton in the latest week, extending a 18-w ...
Monday, 22 August 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS STEADY THIS PAST WEEK; CAPE INDEX DECLINE 5.38%
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week except ...
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Showing 2311 to 2315 news of total 6871 |
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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