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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 29 August 16
THE 5000 GAR THERMAL COAL INDEX HAS STRENGTHENED BY 9.90% SINCE JANUARY
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing upward and it is expected to ral ...
Monday, 29 August 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS STEADY AND FIRM THIS PAST WEEK; BCI ROSE 18.74%
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week except ...
Friday, 26 August 16
WEEKLY US COAL OUTPUT UP 0.7% W/W TO 16 MMST: EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16 million short tons ...
Thursday, 25 August 16
SUPRAMAXES ARE BEING FIXED IN REGION OF $9000
Supramax
Due to Chinese coal imports which continues to source much of the tonnage in SE Asia combined with a good flow of mineral exports ex Aus ...
Wednesday, 24 August 16
MARKET INSIGHT
Brazil and the world bid farewell on Sunday to the first Olympic Games in South America in the midst of a finale meant to be both one last bash and ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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