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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 06 September 16
INDO GOVT. SETS SEPTEMBER COAL REFERENCE PRICE AT US$ 63.93 PER TON; JUMP 20.17% YTD
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since April 2015. The government declared benchmark prices f ...
Tuesday, 06 September 16
CAPESIZE: THE PACIFIC BASIN WAS THE MAIN REGION KEEPING UP WITH THE POSITIVE SUPPORT - ALLIED
Capesize
Despite some mixed feelings being seen early on in the week, we managed to see a positive week-on-week close on Friday with some positiv ...
Monday, 05 September 16
INDIA BECAME ADARO'S SECOND LARGEST MARKET IN 1H' 16
COALspot.com: The Wara Balangan blend product has been well received by customers in China and India - AI
In the second quarter of 2 ...
Monday, 05 September 16
POOR FREIGHT RATES DESPITE STRONG DEMAND GROWTH FROM CHINA - BIMCO
Demand
The dry bulk commodity imports into and exports out of China we have seen in the first half of 2016 are very positive – and nothing ...
Monday, 05 September 16
FREIGHT RATE FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week except ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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