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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 15 September 16
INDONESIA MAY FACE A COAL CRISIS BY 2035!
COALspot.com: Indonesia is the world’s fourth-largest coal producer and the world’s largest thermal coal exporter may face a coal crisi ...
Thursday, 15 September 16
CAPESIZE: LAST WEEK ENDED ON A VERY STRONG NOTE MAINLY DRIVEN BY A ACTIVE BRAZIL MARKET - FEARNLYS
Supramax
With holidays in the eastern hemisphere beginning this week, the sentiment and activity level has been decreasing.
In the Pacific, ...
Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET REACHED LEVELS LAST SEEN BACK IN 2015 - INTERMODAL
In an earlier column we commented that we are undergoing “shipping’s new (ab)normal” with constrained financing, shift in demand ...
Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 12.48 MMT OF COAL IN AUGUST; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE WAS $AU 83.33
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU $1,040.4 ...
Tuesday, 13 September 16
CAPESIZE: BIG STRENGTH SEEN IN THE MARKET THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize - Big strength seen in the market this week, with an upbeat in sentiment amongst owners helping pull up rates fairly quickly and many hold ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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