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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 12 September 16
THE CAPE MARKET HAS GAINS ON WEEK; THE CAPE INDEX SETTLING AT 1566 POINTS ON FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week. The BD ...
Friday, 09 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED SLIGHTLY TO 16.1 MMST, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short ton ...
Friday, 09 September 16
CAPESIZE: THE SENTIMENT IS SOLID, SAYS FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A quiet start with Labour Day celebrations in the United States leading to very little being reported from the Atlantic basin. Supramaxe ...
Thursday, 08 September 16
U.S. COAL EXPORTS IN JUNE 2016 UP 29% COMPARED TO MAY 2016, SAYS EIA
U.S. coal production in August was 71 million short tons (MMst), which is 6 MMst (9%) higher than in the previous month and 12 MMst (14%) lower tha ...
Wednesday, 07 September 16
WEEKLY MARKET (TANKER) REPORT - INTERMODAL
What goes around comes around! The Shipping industry is infamous for its seasonality and cyclicality and the tanker sector is no exception to these ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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