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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 September 16
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL EXPORTS TO DECLINE BY 19 MMST IN 2016 TO 55 MMST
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.3 million sho ...
Thursday, 01 September 16
SUPRAMAX GETTING LEVELS OF MID/HIGHER 7K DELIVERY SINGAPORE FOR TRIPS TO CHINA AND AROUND 9K FOR DIRECTION INDIA - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
This week started slower with London on bank holiday Monday. The south east Asian market seems to have been taking a breather with chart ...
Thursday, 01 September 16
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 2.33 PERCENT MORE COAL IN JULY
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1.10 bill ...
Wednesday, 31 August 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET MANAGED TO FIND FURTHER SUPPORT DURING THE LAST DAYS OF THE SUMMER SEASON - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market managed to find further support during the last days of the summer season, with the BDI climbing above 700 last Friday, reachin ...
Tuesday, 30 August 16
THE SUDDEN SURGE IN IRON ORE TRADE HAS CREPT UP ON THE MARKET THIS PAST WEEK - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The sudden surge in Iron ore trade has crept up on the market this past week bringing about a change in the prospects for Capes. Continued increase ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
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