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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 September 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
Amidst a challenging dry bulk and tanker market, very little time has been spent on the offshore industry developments during the past couple of ye ...
Monday, 19 September 16
AFTER YEARS OF COMA, COAL BECOMES THE MOST ATTRACTIVE COMMODITY RIGHT NOW
COALspot.com: China boosted coal imports in recent months. The Chinese government’s drive to cut over capacity pushed up the demand for therm ...
Monday, 19 September 16
THE CAPE INDEX WAS UP 7.28% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities declined and ending in a slightly negative note this past ...
Friday, 16 September 16
GLOBAL SHIPBUILDING: THE CHALLENGE TO REMAIN 'ACTIVE' - CHRISTOPHER PEARCE, CLARKSONS
The number of ‘active’ shipyards globally has more than halved since the start of 2009, falling to around 400 shipyards at the start of ...
Friday, 16 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED 6.2% TO 15.1 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.1 million short ton ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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