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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 29 September 16
FREIGHT RATES MIGHT CONTINUE TO SLIDE NEXT WEEK DUE TO HOLIDAYS IN CHINA
Supramax
Flat start to week followed by a slight gain in rates for Supramaxes, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
According to Fear ...
Wednesday, 28 September 16
WITHOUT A DOUBT FREIGHT RATES HAVE MOVED UP A BIT TO HEALTHIER LEVELS - INTERMODAL
As we are approaching Q4, it is interesting to perform a review of the last nine months with respect to the second-hand prices of Supramax and Pana ...
Tuesday, 27 September 16
THE CAPESIZE RATE OF INCREASE HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE, UP 39% W/W AND 123% MONTH TO DATE - ALLIED
The Dry bulk market has seen a rare shine in its performance as the capesize sector manages to rally at an unprecedented rate compared to its perfo ...
Monday, 26 September 16
COAL PRICES HAVE BEEN MOVING STEADILY HIGHER AFTER YEARS OF DECLINE
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Monday, 26 September 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS FIRM; ALL SEGMENTS WERE UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week. The BD ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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