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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 07 October 16
INDONESIA'S DEMAND FOR COAL REMAINS STRONG: BP
Indonesia's domestic demand for coal shows no sign of slowing down as the country is banking on its coal abundance to meet the country' ...
Friday, 07 October 16
CEYLON SHIPPING CORPORATION HAS TAKEN DELIVERY OF COAL CARRIER MV.CEYLON PRINCESS
Sri Lanka’s Ceylon Shipping Corporation (CSC) has taken delivery of its second newly built bulk carrier for the transportation of coal to pow ...
Friday, 07 October 16
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALLED AN ESTIMATED 540.5 MMST; DOWN 21.9% Y-O-Y, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 06 October 16
SHIPS IN PACIFIC ACHIEVE JUST ABOVE $10K DAILY FOR A BRAZIL ROUND VOYAGE - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Slower week with limited activity due to holidays in the East. Mixed feelings within different markets, with slight downturn in Pacific ...
Wednesday, 05 October 16
OPEC TO SHUT OFF MORE THAN 6 PERCENT OF ITS PRODUCTION; MIXED FEELING AMONGST TRADERS - ALLIED
OPEC recent accord to shut off more than 6 percent of its production this past week has been met with mixed feeling amongst traders. As we mo ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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