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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
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Monday, 10 October 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE SEPTEMBER 2014
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THE FREIGHT MARKET FIRMS UP ON STRONG CAPE PERFORMANCE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose again and ending in a positive note this past week. ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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