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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 18 October 16
COAL PRICES KEPT CLIMBING
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Tuesday, 18 October 16
PANAMAX: A FAIRLY POSITIVE END TO THE WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize
Things seemed to be moving sideways during the first half of the week, with resistance being felt as owners tried to resist any further ...
Monday, 17 October 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS SOFTENED IN ALL SEGMENTS THIS PAST WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline slightly and ending in a negative note this past ...
Friday, 14 October 16
SUPRAMAXES: DELIVERY SINGAPORE ARE SETTLING AROUND HIGH 6K'S FOR COAL TRIPS TO CHINA VIA INDO - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Wait and see attitude prevailing all over the market.
There have been several fresh cargoes, which have been efficiently covered by ...
Friday, 14 October 16
U.S. SHIPPED 3.3 MMST COAL IN JULY 2016; DECLINE 40% M/M
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.6 million short ton ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- The University of Queensland
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Planning Commission, India
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