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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 27 October 16
PANAMAX: FIRM ATLANTIC; TOPPISH PACIFIC - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The trend from last week is passed on. ECSA still strong with Supras from N Brazil to Med fixed at $9,000 to $9,500 daily.
Accordin ...
Wednesday, 26 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
If the finale of a thriller movie finds the leading actor successfully surviving after all the sacrifices he has made, the audience presumes this t ...
Tuesday, 25 October 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES MARCH HIGHER CONTINUES
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Tuesday, 25 October 16
THINGS ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO IMPROVE AS CORRECTIONS ARE MADE - ALLIED
It seems as though left, right and centre, all we see nowadays is the word “restructuring”.
There is restructuring amongst bankers ...
Monday, 24 October 16
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 0.78 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 780,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for its B ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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