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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 November 16
THE INDEX BASED COAL SALES & PURCHASE STRATEGY MAKES MORE EFFICIENT, SAYS 55.17% END-USERS
Considering the current coal market condition, the Index based coal sales & purchase strategy make more efficient was deemed the winner by 57.0 ...
Thursday, 03 November 16
CAPESIZE: BRAZIL/CHINA RATES MOVED TO THE $11 PMT LEVEL; WEST AUSTRALIA/CHINA ROUTE MOVED UP CLOSE TO MID $5 PMT LEVEL - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
In the Atlantic we see a bit more activity than in the eastern hemisphere, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report. Fhauls via Black ...
Wednesday, 02 November 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
A week before the U.S. presidential election, everyone is eager to see the socio-political effects that the result of these elections will have. As ...
Wednesday, 02 November 16
SHIP OPERATING COSTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE IN BOTH 2016 AND 2017 - MOORE STEPHENS
Vessel operating costs are expected to rise in both 2016 and 2017. Repairs and maintenance and spares are the cost categories which are likely to i ...
Tuesday, 01 November 16
PANAMAX : A FAIR AMOUNT OF SIDEWAYS SHIPPING IN RATES - ALLIED SHIPPING
Capesize
A very sluggish start to the week, with rates dropping considerably as all optimism seems to have evaporated over the weekend. According ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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