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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 07 November 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE ROSE 59.57 PER CENT YEAR TO MONTH
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since May 2013. The government declared benchmark prices for Indo ...
Monday, 07 November 16
HANDYSIZE: THE ASIAN INDICES RECORDED A GRADUAL DROP EVERY DAY - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A rumour-fuelled market this week but essentially rates a touch firmer and owners cautiously optimistic. The flotilla of vessels heading ...
Monday, 07 November 16
THE SUPRAMAX CHARTER RATES FOR INDONESIA TO INDIA WERE RATING AT AROUND $7500-8000 A DAY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose slightly and ending in a positive note this past wee ...
Friday, 04 November 16
U.S COAL PRODUCTION UP WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 17 million short tons ...
Friday, 04 November 16
INDONESIAN INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT TRENDS ARE UNANIMOUSLY AFFIRMED
Press Release: October 20-21, 2016 Indonesia Infrastructure Summit (IIC) opened at the Hyatt Hotel in Jakarta The theme of the meeting was "Pr ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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