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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 01 November 16
IMPROVEMENT ON THE DEMAND SIDE ONLY BUT THE SUPPLY SIDE IS WORSE OFF - BIMCO
Back in May, BIMCO disclosed a projected “road to recovery” for the dry bulk shipping industry. The main message back then on what the ...
Monday, 31 October 16
INDONESIAN 5000 GAR COAL ROSE 5.56% WEEK OVER WEEK - CS COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: The price for thermal coal has recovered substantially since April 2016. The China’s new policy on its domestic coal miners, th ...
Friday, 28 October 16
STEAM COAL IMPORTS: CHINA AND INDIA'S ROLE REVERSALS - BEN TRIMMEL
While a sharp decline in European imports is a key driver of the expected fall in steam coal trade this year, China and India remain leading actors ...
Friday, 28 October 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ROSE DURING THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 22 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.5 million short ton ...
Thursday, 27 October 16
73.08 PERCENT OF COAL PRODUCERS PREDICTED INDIA WILL NOT STOP COAL IMPORTS IN 2 TO 3 YEARS - POLL
COALspot released its weekly opinion poll "How likely do you think India will STOP thermal coal imports in 2-3 years?" this Monday.
...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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