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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 October 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 3.2% TO 16 MMST WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16 million short tons ...
Monday, 24 October 16
DRY BULK:MARKET ENDS WEEK WITH MIXED REACTIONS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities ending with mixed direction as Cape and BDI was declined ...
Thursday, 20 October 16
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 16.97 PERCENT MORE COAL IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1,216.7 m ...
Thursday, 20 October 16
A SUPRAMAX HAVE BEEN FIXED AT $12,500 FOR A INDIA TO BANGLADESH TRIP - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A bit more activities with modest upturn in rates.
According to Fearnleys weekly report, US Gulf trip to Skaw-Passero has seen cons ...
Wednesday, 19 October 16
THE SHIPPING MARKET IS IN A WAIT AND SEE MODE - INTERMODAL
We are now heading towards the end of a rather volatile 2016 for the dry bulk segment. During the last 10 months there were never any clear indicat ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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