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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 14 November 16
KOMIPO'S SEOCHEON POWER PLANT TO IMPORT 240,000 MT OF SEMI / ANTHRACITE COAL FOR Q1'17
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 240K mt of Semi-Anthracite and Anthracite Coal f ...
Monday, 14 November 16
DUNIA MAKMUR SUBSIDIARY BAGS MINING SERVICE CONTRACT WORTH $ 282.63 MILLION
PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama (BUMA), has signed a life of mine contract with PT Tadjahan Antang Mineral (TAM) with a contract value of approximate ...
Monday, 14 November 16
THE CAPE INDEX ROSE 44.57 PER CENTS TO 2303 POINT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose slightly and ending in a positive note this past wee ...
Friday, 11 November 16
INDONESIAN 4200 GAR COAL IS THE MOST ATTRACTIVE COAL IN TODAY'S MARKET - OPINION POLL
“ Which coal type of Indonesian origin do you find the most attractive in today's market?”
The on-line opinion poll conducted ...
Friday, 11 November 16
WEEKLY U.S. COAL OUTPUT FELL SLIGHTLY W/E NOVEMBER 5
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.9 million short ton ...
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Showing 2216 to 2220 news of total 6871 |
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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