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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 22 November 16
THE COMMODITIES MARKETS HAD SHOWED GREATER PROMISE SINCE THE SUMMER PERIOD - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
We have all borne witness to the sluggish pace of trade growth witnessed during the course of the past 4 years as well as the even slower pace note ...
Monday, 21 November 16
CHINA IS ESTIMATED TO SEE HIGHEST IMPORTED COAL DEMAND LEVEL IN 2017, POLL SAYS
“Which country is estimated to see highest imported coal demand level in 2017?”
The on-line opinion poll conducted by COALsp ...
Monday, 21 November 16
KOMIPO IS LOOKING FOR 140K MT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL FOR FEB-MAR 2017 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 140,000 Metric Tons of Sub-Bituminous coal for i ...
Monday, 21 November 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX SURGES TO 1257 POINTS W/E 18 NOV; BPI ROSE 37.3% W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rally continues this past week and ending on a positive n ...
Friday, 18 November 16
CAPESIZE: THE COMMODITIES PRICES ARE INCREASING, RESULTING IN MORE DEMAND AND CONSEQUENTLY RATES ARE MAKING A BIG JUMP - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Apart from booming S. Africa where owners have obtained USD 14-15k to MEG/India and around mid USD 12k to China, the Pacific market has ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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