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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 November 16
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT TOTALS 17.2 MMST, UP 2.8% : EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 17.2 million short ton ...
Monday, 28 November 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX FALLS TO 1181 POINT, DOWN 76 POINTS W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities down slightly and ending in a negative note this past wee ...
Thursday, 24 November 16
SUPRAMAX: SOUTH AFRICA STILL STRONG WITH OWNERS ACHIEVING AROUND USD 14-15K FOR TRIPS EAST - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A positive kick-off in both the Atlantic and the Pacific. Very healthy rates within USG, some supras receiving well over 20k for trips t ...
Wednesday, 23 November 16
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER THOMAS WHITTY
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is due to finalize a reduction in total production at its next scheduled meeting in Vi ...
Tuesday, 22 November 16
ITALY'S STEAM COAL IMPORTS EXPECTED TO DECLINE 7% Y/Y TO 15 MILLION TONS IN 2017 - ITALIAN COAL ASSOCIATION
Italy’s steam coal imports expected to decline to 15 million tons in 2017, or 7% less imports compared to 2016. The coking coal imports are e ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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