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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 December 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 2% IN 2017 - EIA
U.S. Coal production in November 2016 was 70.7 million short tons (MMst), the third time this year monthly production exceeded 70 MMst, says EIA.
...
Wednesday, 07 December 16
IT'S BEEN YET ANOTHER TURBULENT COUPLE OF DAYS..... - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It’s been yet another turbulent couple of days, with a significant number of news headlines shaking up markets.
On Friday we had & ...
Monday, 05 December 16
INDIAN HYDROPOWER PRODUCTION AT LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2012, SAYS COMMODORE RESEARCH
According to Commodore Research, the first eleven months of this year have seen India’s overall electricity production total approximately 1. ...
Monday, 05 December 16
THE DECEMBER 2016 HBA HITS TO ITS HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE MAY 2012
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since May 2012. The government declared benchmark prices for Indo ...
Monday, 05 December 16
BALTIC PANAMAX INDEX UP 5.98%; BALTIC CAPE INDEX FELL 2.52% W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rally slightly continues this past week and ending on a s ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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