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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 14 December 16
INTERNATIONAL TRIBUNAL DISMISSED CHURCHILL MINING'S DAMAGES CLAIM AGAINST REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA
The Directors of Churchill Mining plc advise that, the ICSID Tribunal (“Tribunal”) granted Indonesia’s application to dismiss the ...
Wednesday, 14 December 16
20/20 VISION! - JOHN N. COTZIAS
2020; A year that could be changing shipping. In early November, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) announced that it would set a 0.5% s ...
Tuesday, 13 December 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET MAY WELL BE SHOWING SIGNS OF HEADING FOR ITS DOWNWARD CORRECTIVE PHASE - ALLIED
2016 has been a tough market for dry bulkers and through these difficult earnings, we have seen some of the lowest prices being noted historically ...
Tuesday, 13 December 16
COAL DEMAND GROWTH TO STALL AS APPETITE WANES, ACCORDING TO IEA
Growth in global coal demand will stall over the next five years as the appetite for the fuel wanes and other energy sources gain ground, according ...
Monday, 12 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 16.3 MMST, UP 7.4% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.3 million short ton ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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