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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 20 December 16
TRADE HAS FELT ITS BUMPS AND SHAKES THIS YEAR - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Trade has felt its bumps and shakes this year, as growing populist protectionist and nationalist movements in the Western world start to take hold. ...
Tuesday, 20 December 16
TURNAROUND IN CHINESE ECONOMY HAS INTENSIFIED RECENTLY, SAYS COMMODORE RESEARCH
According to the most recent Weekly China Report published by Commodore Research, it has remained encouraging that the turnaround in China’s ...
Monday, 19 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 3.1% PERCENT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.8 million short ton ...
Monday, 19 December 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS CONTINUING TO SOFTEN
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continually decline this past week and ending on a negati ...
Thursday, 15 December 16
SUPRAMAXES ARE ACHIEVING AROUND HIGH USD 7K FOR INDO/CHINA COAL ROUNDS - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Pacific has been relatively quiet this week, with some softening signs.
Supramaxes are achieving around high USD 7k for Indo/China ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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