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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 12 December 16
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this past week and ending on a negative note week ...
Thursday, 08 December 16
STABLE OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL MINING IN 2017 : FITCH
Fitch Ratings' sector and rating outlooks for the global mining industry in 2017 are both stable, reflecting Fitch's view that prices have ...
Thursday, 08 December 16
CHINESE COAL DEMAND WOULD BE THE KEY FACTOR THAT INFLUENCE WORLD COAL PRICES IN 2017, POLL
“WHAT ARE THE KEY FACTORS THAT MAY INFLUENCE WORLD'S COAL PRICES IN 2017?”
The on-line opinion poll conducted by COALspot.com ...
Thursday, 08 December 16
PANAMAX: THE FIRM TENDENCY CONTINUES IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Market remained firm - true mostly within Atlantic.
Star performer USG remained its title, where Supras reached around USD 21k ...
Wednesday, 07 December 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
Looking back at my previous end-of-year insights, for the last seven years, in each and every one of them, I begin with something like “there ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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