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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 November 16
WILL TRUMP VICTORY PROVIDE A BOOST FOR HYDROCARBON & COAL INDUSTRIES? - DOUGLAS-WESTWOOD
Donald Trump’s surprise victory ends months of an adversarial presidential campaign with bitter disagreements between the two major candidate ...
Thursday, 10 November 16
PANAMAX: NO TRUMP INFLUENCE YET, AND THE MARKET IS HEADING NORTH - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Pacific Supra market still soft and falling this week, although seems to be in a somewhat slower pace compared to last week. According t ...
Wednesday, 09 November 16
SINGAPORE'S SGX COMPLETES ACQUISITION OF LONDON'S BALTIC EXCHANGE
COALspot.com: Singapore Exchange Limited and The Baltic Exchange Limited together announced that the acquisition of the Baltic Exchange by SGX has ...
Wednesday, 09 November 16
SUPRAMAX: 50% INCREASE ON AVERAGE SINCE THE FIRST QUARTER OF THE YEAR - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Last week was an interesting one for the tanker market, which following the explosion of the gas pipeline in Alabama witnessed a spike in Atlantic ...
Tuesday, 08 November 16
S.KOREA'S KOMIPO ISSUES TENDER TO BUY 390K TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR JAN-FEB 2017
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 390,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for its B ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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