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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
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Monday, 03 October 16
THERMAL COAL PRICE SHOOTS UP AND MADE THEIR VERTICAL MOVE IN 5 YEARS; PRICE RALLY CONTINUES
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Monday, 03 October 16
DRY-BULK SHIPPING FREIGHTS SLIDE IN SOFTENING SPOT MARKET
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Friday, 30 September 16
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OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is la ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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