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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 September 16
"COLLATERAL LIES" DO NOT NECESSARILY UNDERMINE AN INSURANCE CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
An insured was not precluded from recovering under an insurance policy even though it had made a false statement during t ...
Friday, 23 September 16
EIA SEES U.S. COAL WEEKLY OUTPUT INCREASE
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short ton ...
Thursday, 22 September 16
CHINA IS THE PRICE-SETTING COUNTRY FOR GLOBAL THERMAL COAL
COALspot.com: China has been the driver of global coal growth since 2009. When China became the largest coal importer in 2011, the country also has ...
Thursday, 22 September 16
SUPRAMAXES ARE ACHIEVING AROUND $7000 FOR A TRIP WITH SINGAPORE DELIVERY VIA INDONESIA TO CHINA
Supramax
A slow start to the week in the Supramax segment in the Atlantic with not much being reported.
In the Blacksea Supramaxes are getti ...
Wednesday, 21 September 16
THE CAPESIZE MARKET HAS BEEN ON A RALLYING TREND SINCE THE END OF AUGUST - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The Capesize market has been on a rallying trend since the end of August, fuelled mainly by the chase by traders to pre-stock before the typical pi ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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