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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 11 July 16
THE MAIN SEA FREIGHT INDEX, BDI ROSE FURTHER ON 8 JULY DUE TO STRONG DEMAND FOR PANAMAX SHIPS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week. The BDI was up 3.84 percent from las ...
Monday, 11 July 16
DRY BULK MARKET: UP TO 30 MILLION DWT OF OLDER BULKERS WILL NEED TO BE SCRAPPED BY END OF 2017 FOR MARKET TO FIND BALANCE
Tonnage oversupply in the dry bulk market is more than evident, as newbuildings have been hitting the water faster than owners can scrap their olde ...
Friday, 08 July 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 3% TO 14.1 MMST - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.1 million short tons (mms ...
Thursday, 07 July 16
PANAMAX : THE TENDENCY FROM LAST WEEK CONTINUES WITH A CONSIDERABLY STRONGER SENTIMENT ALL ACROSS THE BLOCK - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Rates have been holding at steady levels over the last weeks but towards end of this period they are becoming under more pressure as gen ...
Thursday, 07 July 16
CONSOLIDATION TO RULE OVER SHIPPING, AS EXECUTIVES SEEK INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA, INDIA AND EUROPE SAYS NORTON ROSE SURVEY
The transport sector is looking to Asia Pacific as the key market for investment over the next five years, according to the seventh The way ahead T ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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