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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 14 July 16
SHIPPING'S HALF YEAR REPORT - 'MUST DO BETTER' - CLARKSONS
It’s the time of year, with the school holidays and end of term approaching, that many pupils will nervously take home their school reports t ...
Wednesday, 13 July 16
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL EXPORTS TO DECLINE BY 15 MMST IN 2016 AND BY 4 MMST IN 2017
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production in June was 57 million short tons (MMst), a 6 MMst (13%) increase from May and 9 MMst (14%) lower than in June 2 ...
Wednesday, 13 July 16
2015 VS. 2016; THE DRY BULK DEMOLITION DERBY - JOHN N. COTZIAS
In the first half of the year 373 Bulkers and General Cargo ships were scrapped representing 23.8mil tons of dwt carrying capacity.
Comparing ...
Tuesday, 12 July 16
DUE TO LONG HOLIDAYS, CS COAL INDICES HELD AT THE SAME LEVEL OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was flat week over week to averaging $39.98 per ton this past week.
Due to the ...
Monday, 11 July 16
COAL MARKETS SAW IMPROVED PRICES IN H1 2016 - SGX'S COMMODITIES MID-YEAR REFLECTION
COALspot.com: Coal
Coal markets saw improved prices in H1 2016 with the benchmark coking coal and thermal coal spot prices rising 18% and 25%, re ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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