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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 14 July 16
SHIPPING'S HALF YEAR REPORT - 'MUST DO BETTER' - CLARKSONS
It’s the time of year, with the school holidays and end of term approaching, that many pupils will nervously take home their school reports t ...
Wednesday, 13 July 16
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL EXPORTS TO DECLINE BY 15 MMST IN 2016 AND BY 4 MMST IN 2017
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production in June was 57 million short tons (MMst), a 6 MMst (13%) increase from May and 9 MMst (14%) lower than in June 2 ...
Wednesday, 13 July 16
2015 VS. 2016; THE DRY BULK DEMOLITION DERBY - JOHN N. COTZIAS
In the first half of the year 373 Bulkers and General Cargo ships were scrapped representing 23.8mil tons of dwt carrying capacity.
Comparing ...
Tuesday, 12 July 16
DUE TO LONG HOLIDAYS, CS COAL INDICES HELD AT THE SAME LEVEL OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was flat week over week to averaging $39.98 per ton this past week.
Due to the ...
Monday, 11 July 16
COAL MARKETS SAW IMPROVED PRICES IN H1 2016 - SGX'S COMMODITIES MID-YEAR REFLECTION
COALspot.com: Coal
Coal markets saw improved prices in H1 2016 with the benchmark coking coal and thermal coal spot prices rising 18% and 25%, re ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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