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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 25 July 16
STRONG BUYER DEMAND PUSHING UP INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL INDICES
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 0.73 percent week over week to averaging $40.83 per ton this past week, shows C ...
Monday, 25 July 16
THE BDI FELL ON WEAKER RATES FOR CAPESIZE & PANAMAX VESSELS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities slide slightly as Cape and Panamax segments ending in neg ...
Friday, 22 July 16
U.S COAL OUTPUT ROSE 17.2% WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.1 million short tons (mms ...
Thursday, 21 July 16
WHAT TO DO WHEN YOU DON'T GET PAID - SHIPOWNERS CLUB
Present market conditions have led to an increase in claims related to unpaid hire. To recover unpaid hire, Owners need to fully understand who the ...
Thursday, 21 July 16
CONSTRUCTIVE TOTAL LOSS: WHAT GOES IN TO CALCULATING QUANTUM? - HILL DICKINSON
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The Commercial Court recently delivered its judgment in an important case (Connect Shipping Inc and Machrimar Management ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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