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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 25 July 16
STRONG BUYER DEMAND PUSHING UP INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL INDICES
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 0.73 percent week over week to averaging $40.83 per ton this past week, shows C ...
Monday, 25 July 16
THE BDI FELL ON WEAKER RATES FOR CAPESIZE & PANAMAX VESSELS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities slide slightly as Cape and Panamax segments ending in neg ...
Friday, 22 July 16
U.S COAL OUTPUT ROSE 17.2% WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.1 million short tons (mms ...
Thursday, 21 July 16
WHAT TO DO WHEN YOU DON'T GET PAID - SHIPOWNERS CLUB
Present market conditions have led to an increase in claims related to unpaid hire. To recover unpaid hire, Owners need to fully understand who the ...
Thursday, 21 July 16
CONSTRUCTIVE TOTAL LOSS: WHAT GOES IN TO CALCULATING QUANTUM? - HILL DICKINSON
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The Commercial Court recently delivered its judgment in an important case (Connect Shipping Inc and Machrimar Management ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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