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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 20 July 16
EDIBLE OIL MARKETS ACROSS THE GLOBE REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
The edible oil markets across the globe remain under pressure on the back of lackluster demand. Some of the main factors causing the low activity a ...
Tuesday, 19 July 16
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL INDEXES CONTINUALLY FIRM UP ON ROBUST BUYING INTEREST - CS COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose One percent week over week to averaging $40.38 per ton this past week, shows CS ...
Monday, 18 July 16
FROM PIT TO PORT: DRY BULK NEEDS A NEW PATH TO PROFITABILITY - TOC EUROPE
During the golden years for commodities, from 2005 to 2014, high demand and big profit margins pushed companies to produce more and more, sacrifici ...
Monday, 18 July 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX REMAIN FIRM, UP BY 5.97 WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to remain firm with all segments ending in posi ...
Friday, 15 July 16
US COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 8.4% WEEK-OVER-WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 12.9 million short tons (mms ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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