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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow a ...
Thursday, 28 July 16
LAST WEEK ENDING UP WITH BUSIER TONES FOR SUPRAMAXES NOW COOLING DOWN - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Last week ending up with busier tones for Supramaxes now cooling down as with index being down to 684. Average daily earnings for Supram ...
Wednesday, 27 July 16
RATES FOR THE SMALLER SIZES OVER-PERFORMED THE MARKET LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
The decline the BDI noted last week was somewhat expected given the fact that the market has been overall firming for almost a month no ...
Wednesday, 27 July 16
GLOBAL OIL SUPPLY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER THAN GLOBAL CONSUMPTION IN 2016 - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Global oil supply is expected to remain higher than global consumption in 2016, keeping oil prices at relatively low levels this summer compared wi ...
Tuesday, 26 July 16
NORTH P&I CLUB EXPLAINS HOW TO AVOID CLAIMS FOR SELF-COOKING SOYA BEANS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
North P&I Club has advised its members to be extra vigilant during loading and transport of soya beans to ensure they ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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