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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIP TRADING AND ORDERING CLOSE TO A STALEMATE AS SUMMER LULL KICKS IN
With newbuilding activity already at a near standstill since the start of the year, most of 2016’s trading activity in shipping was evident i ...
Tuesday, 02 August 16
INDONESIAN CS COAL INDICES STAY POSITIVE
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 0.71% week over week to averaging $41.12 per ton this past week, shows CS (i) C ...
Monday, 01 August 16
4200 GAR INDONESIAN COAL PRICE MAY TOUCH $ 32/33 A TON LEVELS SOON
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal prices are likely surge further in 2016 as the recent price movement in Indonesian coal markets suggests that the mar ...
Monday, 01 August 16
BALTIC INDEX ENDED NEGATIVE NOTE THIS PAST WEEK ON WEAKER RATES ACROSS ALL LARGE VESSEL SEGMENTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities slide slightly as Cape, Panamax and Supramax segments end ...
Friday, 29 July 16
U.S. COAL OUTPUT SLIPS SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 15 million short tons ( ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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