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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 August 16
THE TURKISH GOVERNMENT HAS IMPOSED A $15 A TON DUTY ON POWER PLANT COAL IMPORTS - MEDIA
COALspot.com: The Turkish government has imposed a US$15 per ton duty on thermal coal imports for use in its power sector.
According to media ...
Monday, 08 August 16
THE BALTIC EXCHANGE, TRACKING RATES FOR SHIPS CARRYING DRY BULK COMMODITIES SLIDE SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities slide slightly as Panamax and Supramax segments ending in ...
Monday, 08 August 16
ARE EXPENSES INCURRED DURING NEGOTIATION OF A PIRATE RANSOM RECOVERABLE IN GENERAL AVERAGE? - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Facts
The laden chemical tanker LONGCHAMP was transiting the Gulf of Aden on passage to Vietnam. The ship was subject t ...
Saturday, 06 August 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING CHARTER RATES TO RISE ON UNEXPECTED DEMAND GROWTH - DREWRY
Increasing trade and contracting supply will support a recovery in charter rates on major dry bulk shipping routes, with the prospect of China impo ...
Friday, 05 August 16
WEEKLY U.S. COAL OUTPUT TOTALED AN ESTIMATED 16.1 MMST IN THE WEEK ENDED JULY 30 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short tons ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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