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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 August 16
THE INDONESIAN DRAFT NEW MINING LAW - AMENDMENTS TO THE 2009 MINING LAW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COALspot.com: A draft mining law published by Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources provides use ...
Tuesday, 09 August 16
CS50 COAL INDEX HITS NEW FIFTY-WEEKS HIGH
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 1.78% week over week to averaging $41.85 per ton this past week, shows CS (i) C ...
Tuesday, 09 August 16
HARD COAL PRODUCTION AND WORLD TRADE ON THE DECLINE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN YEARS - VDKI
Hard coal production and world trade on the decline for the first time in years – not a harbinger of a global energy turnaround
Worldwid ...
Tuesday, 09 August 16
BREXIT, BRITANNIA AND THE WAVES - TREVOR CROWE, CLARKSON RESEARCH
This week, the Bank of England put into place its action plan following the UK referendum on 23rd June, which indicated the British population&rsqu ...
Monday, 08 August 16
INDONESIA'S DRAFT MINING LAW HINTS AT FUTURE REGULATORY FRAMEWORK
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COALspot.com: A draft mining law published by Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources provides use ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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