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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 15 August 16
THE SPOT FREIGHT MARKET STRENGTHEN OVER THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose as Cape and Panamax segments ending in a positive no ...
Friday, 12 August 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ENDING AUGUST 6 FELL SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.9 million short ton ...
Thursday, 11 August 16
CAPESIZE THE PACIFIC SIDE IS LOOKING MORE POSITIVE, DRIVEN BY AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Rates continue to be under pressure with index ending up with 639 points and average TC value at USD6,680, said Fearnleys. Fearnleys A/S ...
Thursday, 11 August 16
EIA ESTIMATES THE DELIVERED COAL PRICE TO U.S. ELECTRIC UTILITIES IN 2017 AVERAGED $2.24/MMBTU; $0.05/MMBTU HIGHER THAN 2016 ESTIMATES
Coal Supply
U.S. coal production in July was 65 million short tons (MMst), an 8 MMst (14%) increase from the previous month but 11 MMst (15%) low ...
Wednesday, 10 August 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET KEPT SOFTENING LAST WEEK; WE CAN SEE MUCH HEALTHIER NUMBERS STARTING SEPTEMBER
The Dry Bulk market kept softening last week as we have now started going through the traditionally quieter days of the summer season peak period, ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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